Maclean's Magazine believes its crime rankings are real, and so are the inroads made on crime in Prince George.
The lead writer for the annual rankings, Vancouver-based Ken MacQueen, listed off all the things he knew to be underway in B.C.'s northern capital - which for two years running is also Canada's serious crime capital - that would almost certainly improve its dubious ranking. He said the RCMP's Downtown Enforcement Unit was a hit, that the Crime Reduction Team was a hit, that the province's integrated anti-gang police group had an active base in Prince George, and that the federal RCMP task force on grow-operations in the Cariboo was successful.
He agreed with assertions made Wednesday by mayor Shari Green and RCMP Supt. Eric Stubbs that next year, Prince George's position would almost certainly not be No. 1.
"No murders all year, so far, that's really good," said MacQueen. "The precedent for this was set a few years ago when Abbottsford was the murder capital and this year they are also running at zero murders. I think it is very safe to say the RCMP in Prince George was profoundly unhappy with that murder rate, and in the ways they can influence that category, as much as you can wrestle with that beast, they put enormous resources to that issue and they have had a rather stellar turnaround."
On the other hand, he said, St. John's has had a much different turnaround. Newfoundland and Labrador's economy is booming and MacQueen's inquiries there told him this was why their serious crime rate has shot up. They consequently rose from 65th out of 100 Canadian cities to 25th.
Most of Canada's crime, he said, is not subject to economic anomalies. Social habits are running the statistical show and will need concerted efforts to change that, especially in Western Canada.
"West Canada habitually has the biggest crime problems," MacQueen said. "Saskatoon, Regina and Winnipeg again and again are pronounced pockets of dysfunction. It's poverty, many single-parent families if there are any parents at all, low education levels, alcohol and drug abuse. Why there is that level of dysfunction in the west is still somewhat of a mystery, but there are ties to it being a lot of communities with younger and transient populations, the kind of employment in those regions, the prevailing kinds of education in those regions, a lot of regional hub communities where employment or social services converge... I asked Jim Chew that question, the chief of police in Vancouver, and he didn't know either, but indicated there was definitely a frontier mentality here in Western Canada."
When Maclean's Magazine hits newsstands today, it will describe how there is a national benchmark, a zero mark, for the crime severity index, and the nation's 100 biggest cities are ranked according to how close they are to that statistical bull's eye. Prince George is by far the worst of the bunch at 114 percentage points above the national benchmark. "There is an appreciable gap" before the next worst location, Victoria, at 75 per cent above the mark, said MacQueen.
"Next year I expect a whole other ball game. We have seen a spike this year in the murder rates for Edmonton and Winnipeg that could boost their positions next year, but yours dropped by a huge amount. Murder is weighted heavily, for obvious reasons, and it is also one of the purest of the statistics because it almost always gets reported. However, it can also distort things because if Prince George, at less than 100,000 people, has a serial killer or a gang war or a weird streak, and you end up with seven murders in a year, your crime rating flies off the charts compared to Toronto which can absorb a lot more mayhem with their larger stats pool."
Toronto sits at No. 52 on this year's list.
The Top Five Cities for Serious Crimes
Prince George - 114
Victoria - 75
Saskatoon - 72
Red Deer - 71
Regina - 67
Scoring Prince George
(percentage above or below the national average for the six categories measured)
Homicide (seven) - 486 above
Sexual Assault - 84 above
Aggravated Assault - 18 below
Robbery - 57 above
Break-and-Enter - 89 above
Auto Theft - 104 above
