B.C. businesses tied to commodities, tourism and events will be bearing the brunt of the COVID-19 fallout from the outset, according to the chief economist of the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC).
“The good news in British Columbia is the economy is already running very well. So it’s better when you have a shock like this to do it from a good start than doing it from a weak economy,” Pierre Cleroux told Business in Vancouver shortly before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced sweeping measures to fight the novel coronavirus Friday (March 13).
The BDC’s latest economic forecast, released in January, pegged B.C. and Quebec as leading economic growth among the provinces.
But on March 12 the Business Council of B.C. downgraded projections for the province’s economic growth to between 1.3% and 1.5%, down its February projection of 2%.
Both forecasts were made before the full extent of COVID-19 was known.
“Typically, those shocks, when it’s a virus, it’s not like a financial crisis. It’s much more short-term, it’s much more temporary,” Cleroux said.
He pointed to the smaller-scale 2002 SARS scare in Toronto, which saw the economy bounce back relatively quickly.
And while mining, forestry and tourism will be taking a hit in B.C., Cleroux said major infrastructure projects in the province, such as the $40-billion LNG Canada facility in Kitimat, won’t be throttled.
“I’m confident British Columbia is not going to experience a recession, even with the virus,” the economist said.
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