Prince George should brace for floods by Friday.
The northern region of the province has unusually high snowpacks, with significant rainfall in the forecast this week.
"The Fraser already has high flows so extra inflows - there is not a lot of extra capacity there," said David Campbell, a hydrologist/geoscientist and head of B.C.'s River Forecast Centre. "In terms of the Fraser River through Prince George, our current five-day model has flood flows by Friday there."
The eastern slopes of the Rockies will get most of this week's rainfall, said Campbell, but enough will fall onto the western side - somewhere between 60mm and 100mm - that flooding would likely occur even without all the snow. Most of that snow will be more of a threat later on this spring.
"The bulk is yet to come," said Campbell. "Particularly in the Upper Fraser basin we have above-normal snowpack left for this time of year. The Nechako snowpack is fairly high as well. It is a regulated system, but the headwaters and the Skeena inflows could see some impact as well."
The latest round of monthly data collection was just done, with technicians physically going up to the mountaintops to check the depth of snow. The analysis is still underway but should be part of the forecasting by the time the first floodwaters arrive this week.
"Given the snowpack situation right now, we probably have another three weeks of flood potential from snow melt alone," said Campbell. "Add new precipitation to that, and it compounds the flood risk. There are no signs of aggressive weather in the near future, but this current weather system is not going to clear that snowpack out, so the flood risk will continue for weeks, based on what we know at the moment."
Meanwhile, local government is preparing for flood issues to surface within a couple of days.
A Level 1 Emergency Operations Centre order has been in effect in Prince George for some time, in anticipation of the possible high waters. City of Prince George spokeswoman Chris Bone said this was purely precautionary.
"The group is meeting, monitoring, having preparatory conversations, we are filling sandbags in case we need them, we want to be in a state of readiness should we need to respond," she explained. "There has been discussion about having access to about a quarter-mile of gabion baskets [portable dikes] and the province has offered an individual with technical expertise in placement of gabion baskets, should that tactic be necessary."
As of midday Tuesday, the water level at the downtown Prince George monitoring station on the Fraser showed waters at 8.013 metres. Flooding officially occurs at 9.4 metres. The riverfront properties near Paddlewheel Park, particularly Farrell Street, are typically the ones to confront flooding first.
"Prince George Fire-Rescue Service has gone door to door to inform residents who may be impacted - eight to 10 homes - that they may want to take preparatory measures in case they are necessary, but no officials have asked anyone to leave their homes," Bone said.
Depending on the temperature and amounts of rainfall, said Bone, flooding may not become a major issue during this weather system.
