The city's unemployment rate stood at 5.7 per cent in September, according to Statistics Canada labour market survey numbers issued Friday.
That's up from 4.9 per cent year over year, but College of New Caledonia economics instructor Al Idiens sees some silver linings in the supporting numbers.
Not only is the number of people holding down jobs up, standing at 49,900 compared to 49,000 in September 2018, but so is the number seeking work, at 3,000 compared to 2,500 the year before.
"In some respects, I would've expected fewer people seeking work because in September a lot of the students will leave the workforce and return back to school," he said.
Idiens said the rise could be a function of a number of construction projects winding down, forcing people to look for other work. But he also said people could simply be more optimistic about their job prospects, "because you're not going to go looking for work if you're convinced that there's no work out there."
Countering Idien's first theory is that the value of building permits issued by city hall in August reached $28 million, spread over 61 projects, more than double the value reached over the same month last year, although spread over the same number of projects.
"That may well have spread some of the working, keeping the unemployment rate from going higher," he said.
Idiens also suggested the rise of the number of people seeking work could also be a function of a rise in the number of people of working age in the city, which stood at 52,900 compared to 51,500.
"I don't see loads and loads of moving vans heading south or anything like that around here," Idiens said. "People seem to be staying. The housing market seems to be reasonably active...nothing stays for sale too long."
On the ailing forest industry, Idiens said sawmill workers collecting Employment Insurance often aren't seeking work because they expect to be back on the job before the benefits run out. The provincial government has also committed $40 million over two years towards bridging older sawmill workers to retirement.
In September, the number of people of working age not seeking a job was 20,200, down from 21,300 a year previous.
Idiens said the unemployment rate remains low for this area.
"For a city like Vancouver, it would be high because you can usually find something in that region that fits into the kinds of skills you have, whereas here there aren't as many businesses and there isn't as much variety in the workplace, so it tends to be harder to find work," he said. "Usually, you can find an unemployment rate of about seven per cent."
The year-over-year differences in the unemployment rates are not statistically significant. The most recent figure is accurate to plus or minus 0.9 per cent, 68 per cent of the time, giving it a range of 4.8 to 6.6 per cent. And the accuracy of the September 2018 figure is plus or minus 0.8 per cent, also 68 per cent of the time, for a range of 4.8 to 5.7 per cent.
The numbers are based on a three-month rolling average and do not separate full-time from part-time work.
