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Warm weather beckons freshet season

Warmer temperatures beginning this week are expected to kick start the freshet season across the province, according to the River Forecast Centre. In an update issued Friday, it said low-elevation snow melt will lead to rises in stream flow.
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Warmer temperatures beginning this week are expected to kick start the freshet season across the province, according to the River Forecast Centre.

In an update issued Friday, it said low-elevation snow melt will lead to rises in stream flow.

"The warm weather may create challenges for smaller creeks and lower elevation areas; however, the upcoming warm weather may be considered a positive for larger, higher elevation watersheds," it said.

As of Monday, Environment Canada forecast a high of 15 C by Wednesday, rising to 19 C by Saturday. 

The RFC is predicting slightly above normal runoff in the Upper Fraser.

As of April 1, snowpack stood at 132 per cent of normal in the Upper Fraser West basin, 122 per cent in the Upper Fraser East and 119 per cent in the Nechako.

By early April, nearly 95 per cent of the annual B.C. snowpack has typically accumulated.

The RFC said there is an 80-per-cent chance that La Nina conditions, which tend to bring cooler temperatures to the province, will give way to neutral conditions during May-July.

The recent La Nina years of 2011, 2012 and 2017 have seen significant flooding, the RFC noted, but also said short and mid-range weather is more critical to the spring freshet season.

Whether there will be freshet flooding is not based on snowpack alone, the RFC said. A sudden jump from cool to persistently hot weather, particularly in May could exacerbate flood risk. 

"Favourable scenarios would include continued dry weather and seasonal temperatures," the RFC said.