Picture this: Rachel Notley and Donald Trump shaking hands, smiling big for the cameras and praising each other for their commitment to growing the economy, creating jobs and Making Alberta/America Great Again.
Don't dismiss the idea.
Trump was also dismissed, first as a candidate for the Republican Party nomination and then as the party's nominee for president. Look what happened.
Trump's behaviour and conduct as president is predictable. He will do calm and presidential when it suits him, as he did during his interview with 60 Minutes, but he will be a loud, condescending, dismissive bully to anyone not on his side.
That much is certain.
On the policy side, however, his presidency will be a surprise every day. He's repealing Obamacare, he says, except he likes parts of Obamacare. What's staying? What's going? Who knows? It'll be better and cheaper is all he can say about it.
Both he and the Republican leadership seem to be in agreement, however, on getting the Keystone XL pipeline built from Alberta to Oklahoma, which is where the premier of Alberta comes into the picture.
Getting that pipeline under construction before she has to run for re-election as Alberta premier will go a long way to returning Notley to power in Edmonton. The environmentalists will be upset but where will they take their votes? The Conservatives under Jason Kenney? The Wildrose? As if.
Meanwhile, Notley can appeal to her working class, trade union supporters with a message of job creation and moving Alberta's oil to market.
South of the border, Trump will say he's creating good paying American jobs, just like he promised. He would also get to brag about the amazing diversity of people willing to work with him to cut great deals, including this female socialist provincial leader up north.
Unfortunately, the softwood lumber file is far more unpredictable.
One one hand, it's easy to imagine a short, harsh meeting between Trump, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Premier Christy Clark, where Trump would put his fist on the table, demand significant tariffs and tell them if they don't like it, they have the option of shoving their Canadian lumber where the sun don't shine or selling it to the Chinese.
Then Trump would go before the cameras and say he put America first and Canada won't be dumping its subsidized lumber onto the American market on his watch without paying a big price. American lumber producers will have a better chance of growing their businesses and creating new jobs, he will add.
That neglects to mention the significant American holdings the major Canadian lumber companies have acquired over the past two decades but Trump won't care about that. Only the optics of decisive leadership are important.
On the other hand, Trump is in the construction business. He could just as easily sit down with Trudeau and Clark to sign a softwood deal that significantly improves Canadian access to the U.S. market, insisting that low, competitive lumber prices encourages home construction, along with the jobs that go with it, and keeps house prices down for new buyers.
If small southern lumber producers complain that Trump isn't looking after them, he'll take to Twitter to call them crybabies and suggest that maybe if they ran their businesses the way he runs his, they would be able to compete with the wily Canadians.
Again, only the optics of decisive leadership are important.
On a side note, the prospect of Keystone XL being back on the table puts pressure on Trudeau and Clark to act as decisively as Trump on the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline from Alberta to Vancouver.
Except what does decisive for Trudeau and Clark look like on that file? Does it mean supporting it, giving Alberta oil greater access to both American and global markets? Does it mean rejecting it, because they don't want to be seen in the same light as Trump?
Like Notley, Trudeau and Clark could also stand to gain more than lose in the political arena by agreeing with Trump when it comes to expanding an already existing pipeline.
Turns out that the effects of the Trump presidency on Canadian domestic affairs are just as unpredictable as they will be on Americans and the world.
-- Managing editor Neil Godbout
