Everybody needs to stop lighting their hair on fire and take a deep breath of spring air about the twinning of Kinder Morgan's Trans Mountain pipeline.
Premier John Horgan is working this file the same way he did Site C.
Despite the company's arbitrary May 31 deadline to walk away from the project without guarantees it can go ahead and build the pipeline in a timely manner (read: B.C. will issue building permits and protesters blocking equipment and workers will be arrested), virtually nothing has changed.
What Kinder Morgan, along with Alberta Premier Rachel Notley and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, see as bullheaded stubbornness from Horgan is the same tactic he employed when considering the fate of the Site C dam project.
He needed to demonstrate to his political base that he heard their concerns but will agree to go ahead in the end because there really was no alternative. In the case of Site C, he had no choice because of the significant investment already made and in the case of Kinder Morgan, he lacks the political and legal authority to block the pipeline, as the Federal Court of Appeal is expected to tell him soon.
That ruling, along with whatever threats Trudeau's government gives him about withholding federal transfer payments and whatever bill Notley's government passes next week (with the support of Jason Kenney's Conservatives, no less) to restrict B.C. goods going to Alberta and Alberta energy going to B.C., is the political cover Horgan seeks.
His eventual capitulation will follow the same playbook as his Site C decision. He will cite the many reasons why Trans Mountain shouldn't proceed before begrudgingly agreeing to go forward. He promised strict oversight to make sure British Columbians aren't left with a bill for construction cost overruns (Site C) or he'll do the same for spill cleanup (Trans Mountain).
The political payoff for Horgan will be exactly the same as it was last time.
While members of the NDP caucus will be privately outraged, they will hold their tongue in public. The environmental wing of the B.C. NDP will kick up a fuss but will stifle themselves because they're in power and the B.C. Liberals aren't. Green Party leader Andrew Weaver will express his profound disappointment - he might even stomp his foot and raise his voice - but he will not withdraw his support for Horgan's government.
Most importantly, moderate adult British Columbians - the ones who see no conflict between caring for both the environment and economic growth at the same - will be pleased that Horgan made the difficult but reasonable move.
The benefits of this tactic, both for Site C and Trans Mountain, are many.
If there are significant problems during construction or operation of either project, Horgan and every B.C. NDP leader after him can claim these resource projects were forced upon them.
On the flip side, when the provincial economy benefits from these developments, Horgan and every future B.C. NDP leader can take credit for their responsible management of essential energy infrastructure.
Horgan took a beating last fall for his foot dragging on Site C and the uncertainty it generated, especially among the thousands of workers in the Peace, but he came out better for it. The same scenario appears to be unfolding now with a similar likely outcome.
Best of all for Horgan, he also gets to stay above the fray regardless of what happens on the protest line.
If the inevitable protests once construction of Trans Mountain begins in earnest remain peaceful, he can claim that was the result of his forceful defence of B.C.'s concerns to Ottawa and Alberta. If those protests turn violent, particularly if construction workers and police officers are assaulted by demonstrators, Horgan can lay that on the feet of Elizabeth May and any other Green politician who physically obstructs the pipeline.
The more noise everyone makes, the more Horgan gets to play the calm, rational premier and further earn the confidence of voters.
Where have we seen this kind of clever political scheming in B.C. politics before?
Horgan would never admit it, of course, but he once had a front-row seat to it and his endless outrage on matters big and small was once smoothly manipulated by Christy Clark in exactly the same way.
Wherever she is, Clark must be simultaneously sad and proud that Horgan learned the hard lessons she taught him so well for so long.
If the B.C. Liberals want to score points with voters on this issue, new leader Andrew Wilkinson needs to stop having the obvious reaction, put away his anger and congratulate Horgan for managing the Trans Mountain file almost the exact same way Clark worked Northern Gateway.
Now that's a criticism that would sting.
Wilkinson's not there yet but he's a bright guy.
He'll figure it out.
-- Editor-in-chief Neil Godbout
