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Facts, logic won't decide PR referendum

Thankfully, Citizen columnist and UNBC professor Todd Whitcombe plans on writing about proportional representation most weeks leading up to next November's provincial referendum.
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Thankfully, Citizen columnist and UNBC professor Todd Whitcombe plans on writing about proportional representation most weeks leading up to next November's provincial referendum.

That vote, to be conducted through a mail-in ballot, will ask residents whether they want to change the electoral system from the traditional first-past-the-post method to a system where our provincial MLAs will be chosen based on a proportion of the vote or keep the status quo.

The more information voters have before deciding, the better.

We've been here before, twice in fact. In both 2005 and 2009, B.C. voters said no to various versions of proportional representation. Yet, like Quebec separation, the idea keeps coming back from the grave and placed before the voters.

Like the Quebec decisions and unlike the previous provincial votes, the PR referendum next November will only require 50 per cent plus one across the province to pass, regardless of how few people vote (and based on previous voter participation and the fact that this will be a mail-in ballot, a small percentage of British Columbians will take part).

Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has all but given John Horgan and the NDP a blank cheque to govern until then, in exchange for holding that referendum on PR.

Based on current voting patterns, the Greens would have about 15 seats or so in an 87-member legislature, up from just three at present, in a PR system.

If that were to continue, the Greens would almost certainly continue to hold the balance of power, forcing the Liberals or the NDP to ally themselves with the Greens, which is how Horgan came to be premier this past summer.

Meanwhile, the B.C. Liberals are freaking out and that's being polite.

The entire caucus and all of the leadership candidates are terrified by the prospects of a new voting system that will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a majority government and that the minority rule would always be an NDP-Green partnership.

The Liberals shouldn't worry quite so much.

Referendums, byelections and any special vote outside of a general election are almost never about the subject at hand, whether that's proportional representation or electing a new MP, as Canadians did in four ridings, including South Surrey-White Rock, on Monday.

It is noble that Whitcombe, Weaver and many others think voters will carefully consider electoral systems before making a logical choice on their ballot but that's not how it will go down.

Instead, a significant segment of voters will avoid the complicated analysis in favour of a much simpler one: are they happy with Premier John Horgan?

If they like how Horgan is handling things, the PR vote will pass. If they're mad about Site C, Kinder Morgan, how he "stole" the premier's chair from Christy Clark or any other mess he's stepped into between now and next November, most voters will give a thumbs down to PR, just to remind Horgan who's really in charge.

Take Monday's federal byelections, where the Liberals won three of the four races, including taking the B.C. riding that had been previously held by Dianne Watts for the Conservatives, before she resigned to run for leader of the B.C. Liberals.

The Liberals also stole a riding from the Conservatives during an October byelection in Quebec.

If voters thought Justin Trudeau was a disaster as prime minister, if they were mad as hell about the small business tax changes or Finance Minister's Bill Morneau's missteps, they would have shown it at the ballot box.

Although these byelections are a small sample size, the message seems to be that Canadians are mostly satisfied with Trudeau and aren't ready to give the new Conservative and NDP leaders a try.

Closer to home, this is also what happened with the October referendum in Prince George to borrow $35 million to replace Four Seasons Pool and another $15 million to build a new main fire hall.

The dollars, the locations and the age of the current buildings were simply details around the more basic question of whether local voters were satisfied or dissatisfied with Mayor Lyn Hall and the rest of city council.

In other words, the prospects of re-election next fall for Hall and the other councillors is promising at this point, as is another majority government for Trudeau in 2019.

Plenty can happen between now and then, of course, but that's what it looks like at the end of 2017.

As for the PR vote next year, the popularity or lack thereof of the Horgan government - and not whether voters understand a word Weaver is saying - will carry the day.

From a political strategy standpoint, the Liberals should avoid doomsday scenarios about electoral reform and hammer Horgan hard for his many mistakes, large and small.

As for the NDP, the path forward is equally simple but trickier: don't screw up too bad or too often in the next 11 months.

-- Editor-in-chief Neil Godbout