Premier Christy Clark's government placed an $8.7-billion bet on the future of B.C. Tuesday -- and it will take a generation or more to see if it pays off.
What Energy Minister Bill Bennett described as the last big dam that will ever be built in B.C. got the green light, and work could begin on the Peace River next summer, aiming for a 2024 completion date.
Amid all the applause, criticism, dejection and jubilation over the historic decision, keep one thing in mind. No one knows if it's the right call.
All the major factors that will shape the eventual verdict on whether building the Site C dam is a sound idea are volatile. The electricity market can swing from calm to turbulent on a moment's notice. Alternative generation always seems to be on the cusp of a breakthrough that could make big dams relics.
The North American economy almost collapsed in the space of a month six years ago. There's no compelling evidence it could never happen again. B.C.'s debt-handling capabilities seem to be edging into the warning zone. If New York money decides it's too high, borrowing costs could skew upward.
Ask Ontario, California or various other jurisdictions what happens when key factors in the electricity world all swing negatively at the same time.
And all those worries are about the economics once the turbines start turning. Just getting it built involves a whole other set of complexities. One of them is the First Nations in the Peace country, none of whom have signed any agreements after years of cajoling by B.C. Hydro. In the horde of validators on hand, the absence of any First Nations leaders was obvious.
That's partly why they've delayed the construction start six months, to next summer, at considerable cost. The local First Nations were part of a historic treaty and aren't in the same position as the Tsilhqot'in.
But that epic court decision of the same name is in the background of any development decision anywhere in B.C.
The Site C dam will determine how powerful First Nations' positions are when they are opposed to the direction a government takes.
B.C. Hydro has six months to bring them on side, or is one injunction away from having to add millions more to its cost estimates.
The decision also marks a course change. After a decade of preference for independent power production on smaller-scale, mostly run-of-river projects, the government is going back to the old way of doing things.
B.C. Hydro's last big dam was in 1985.
One of the overriding factors is that hydroelectric power is generally the most efficient power. The cheapest electricity bills are always in places that rely on hydroelectricity. With some fancy cost-shuffling between government and the utility, Bennett was able to promise rates much lower than would have resulted from going all-in on independent power production. And of the other options, natural gas is too dirty, and geothermal is unproven.
The one downside to hydroelectric power is the immense footprint, but Site C's geography minimizes that, since most of the water is in the reservoir behind the original Bennett Dam.
B.C. won't start paying for the dam until 2025 and even after, it will take years to see if it's worth it.
Looking at all the mostly middle-aged people on hand for the big reveal, it was striking to realize that it is our children and grandchildren who will be living with the impact of the decision.
