In the world of politics, governing is only half the job. The other half is getting reelected. Premier John Horgan is under great pressure from his fellow NDP MLAs and from the party faithful to not only turn the NDP platform into government policy but also convince voters to return the NDP to office in the next election, preferably without Andrew Weaver and the Greens holding them back.
Horgan seemed to be on the right track with his responsible decision in December to complete the Site C dam. Cancelling the Port Mann bridge toll and setting a date for a referendum on proportional representation also earned him broad approval. The hefty hikes in minimum wage scheduled over the next three years were met with concern but not condemnation.
Yet Horgan has stumbled badly on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion. Not only has he significantly impaired his own prospects for reelection, he's boosted the odds of both Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau winning second terms in office.
Nothing helps increase approval in the eyes of voters more than a politician handling an external threat with strength and authority. Yet nothing destroys credibility with voters faster than bullying shenanigans seen as little more than political posturing. U.S. President Donald Trump has shown that process sometimes takes longer but the bill always comes due.
Back in B.C., perhaps Horgan thought voters would see him as the province's valiant protector against the selfish interests of Ottawa and Edmonton. Perhaps he thought his tough talk would galvanize environmentalists and some B.C. First Nations. Perhaps he thought he could extract significant concessions out of Notley and Trudeau.
On all counts, he thought wrong.
For Notley and Trudeau, both known for their kinder, gentler approach to governance, Horgan's bully tactics played right into their hands. Trudeau now looks prime ministerial by saying the pipeline has been approved through the proper channels and national interests can't be held hostage by a province that doesn't have a constitutional leg to stand on. Notley, meanwhile, gets to stand tall for Alberta's energy and economic interests.
Instead of concessions, Notley has fired the opening salvos of a trade war, banning B.C. wine imports, suggesting B.C. craft beer is next and promising more to come if Horgan doesn't change his tune PDQ. Rather than playing peacemaker, Trudeau cancelled a federal/provincial child-care announcement and he'll do more than that to bring Horgan to heel.
Meanwhile, potential support from environmentalists and some First Nations leaders has been lukewarm at best. They're leery of Horgan after the Site C decision and think they might be getting played by a guy whose support for Trans Mountain hinges on a cheque to B.C.
That suspicion cuts both ways. For the respect Horgan earned as a pragmatic NDP leader in favour of responsible resource development by staying the course on Site C, his opposition to Trans Mountain seems insincere and contradictory, a stance taken simply to appease Andrew Weaver and the Greens. Instead of appearing strong, Horgan looks like Weaver's puppet.
The longer this goes on, the better it will be Trudeau and Notley, while Horgan's standing across the board - with other premiers, with Canadian business leaders, with B.C. voters, even with his own MLAs and his party - plummets. Worse, the instant he concedes defeat, as he inevitably must, he'll be vilified by both supporters and opponents for being weak and ineffective.
Horgan could have saved face with more subtle opposition to Trans Mountain, drawing out permit approvals while working behind the scenes to wrangle concessions from Alberta and the feds. Instead, he puffed out his chest and dared Trudeau and Notley to call his bluff.
While in opposition, Horgan could lash out on issues without fear of real political consequence. Now that he's in power, however, he's just learned the hard way that taking on the prime minister and the premier next door is more than just a war of words.
Bringing a knife to a gun fight is a mistake that could haunt Horgan for the rest of his days in office and ruin his chances for a second term.
And that pipeline will still be built, likely right over his political grave.
-- Editor-in-chief Neil Godbout
