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Statistical wrinkle belies new home sales, CMHC economist says

The market for new single-family homes is probably much better than recent statistics are indicating, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.
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The market for new single-family homes is probably much better than recent statistics are indicating, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

The agency recorded just one sale for the city last month, way down from 24 for the same month last year.

But CMHC senior market analyst Taylor Pardy indicated there may be some sales yet to be accounted for because it counts only sales of completed homes. Homes sold before they have been completed are not included until the work has been finished, as confirmed through site visits.

"So in Prince George, it may be that there are a number of units that are technically sold right now but only one of them was completed and sold as of October 2017," he said in an email.

Pardy's comments were in line with the take of a local home builder on the situation.

"Most homes are custom or are sold before they have to hit the market," said Jody Tindill, a past president of the Canadian Home Builders Association - Northern B.C.

She also noted 245 houses were under construction as of the end of October, up from 200 in July, as builders rushed to get foundations in before the snow falls.

Completions year-to-date are way down, to 59 from 136 by the same point last year, but Tindill attributed that to a tough winter that included two weeks of freezing cold in January.

"I know a lot of us had later starts this year than we planned," she said.

Tindill also predicted home prices will go up over the next while because building costs have risen astronomically. But she said there still appears to be a demand for new houses.

"We're not 100-per-cent certain what's driving it," Tindill said. "People still have healthy budgets."

A new stress test for uninsured mortgages to come in at the start of 2018 will have an impact but most buyers have made been well aware of the development, she added.

"The resale market is strong so they've got equity if they bought when they were younger," Tindill said. "There are lots of young families in this town and they want new homes."