Written by Gordon Hoekstra
Citizen staff
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Thursday, 05 November 2009 |
Lumber demand is expected to improve in 2010 after five straight years of losses, but it will be a slow recovery, the U.S.-based Western Wood Products Association said in a forecast released Thursday.
“Given the unprecedented downturn, recovery for the lumber industry is unlikely to follow the same path as it has in the past,” said David Jackson, WWPA economist. “The challenge for mills will be adjusting to a ‘new normal’ for the future," he said.
Lumber demand in the U.S. - related largely to housing starts - is important to B.C. Northern Interior lumber producers as the U.S. remains their No. 1 export market.
Just 31 billion board feet of lumber is expected to be used in 2009 - less than half of what was consumed in 2005, which was an all time high in lumber demand. During that year housing starts in the U.S. reached more than two million. In 2009, housing starts are to finish the year at 551,000, down 39 per cent from the previous year and the lowest total since 1945.
For 2010, the Western Wood Products Association predicts lumber demand to rise 11 per cent to 34.5 billion board feet. Housing starts are forecast to increase 21 per cent to 668,000. While this increase will be substantial, it still represents only half the total constructed in 2007, noted the wood association.
The WWPA does not expect housing starts to exceed one million before 2012.
"Demand for softwood lumber will be relatively low, but it should be sufficient to allow most sawmills to continue operations and, hopefully, build their core customer base," said Jackson, the WWPA economist.
The association's forecast noted that Canada should regain some of the market share it lost over the past few years. Imports from Canada are expected to rise 18.8 per cent in 2010 to 9.4 billion board feet. Volumes from Europe and Latin America will also increase to just more than one billion board feet.
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 05 November 2009 )
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