Written by Mark Nielsen
Citizen staff
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Sunday, 28 June 2009 |
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In an early screening carried out by Partnerships B.C., the PAC scored 31 out of 50 points. Any score over 25 means it's worthwhile to "undertake a detailed procurement options analysis...that includes a PPP (private-public partnership) as one of the options," the report says.
However, the screening relied on project information as provided and did not evaluate the assumptions or estimates.
"Early screening generaly does not by itself result in a recommendation to procure a project as a PPP, rather, it serves to support the decision to allocate additional resources towards the analysis needed to make such a recommendation," the report warns. "That additional analysis will typically involved a business case that includes detailed quantitative and qualitative risk analysis, as well as market testing."
According to a feasbility study presented to council in November, the PAC could cost as much as $51.3 million, if it was to include both an 800-seat and a 250-seat theatre.
The figure was the high-end of the estimates outline in the study, drafted by consultant David Webb, who provided a range of three construction cost numbers that "reflect current, realistic construction costs" and are based on recent experience with this type of building.
He estimated the project could be built for as low as $42 million and recommended a "middle ground" budget of $46.7 million. The biggest cost would be the 800-seat theatre, which would cover 54,277 square feet, ranging from a low of $30 million to a high of $37 million.
The 250-seat theatre would take up 21,244 gross square feet and cost between $9 million and $10.4 million.
Administrative offices would cost a further $1.6 to $2 million and a multipurpose rehearsal room would add $1.5 to $1.9 million to the bill and the building would meet the gold standard for Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED).
Webb also included attendance and cost estimates for operating the complex for the first five years once it's operating. He predicted 86,515 people would patronize the facility in its first full year of operation, expected to be 2012 with that number rising to 94,523 by 2015.
Operating expenses, meanwhile, would start at $1.46 million and increase to $1.79 over that period, with earn income as a percentage of operating expenses starting at 57 per cent and increasing to 63 per cent, meaning there would be a shortfall of $621,866 in the first year rising to $666,259 in 2015.
He predicted local government's share of funding the shortfall and debt servicing would start at $350,000 and rise to $432,640.
Despite the costs, Webb said a strong case can be made for a centre financially supported by the community. Benefits include driving the economic development of the downtown, creating new opportunities for students and artists and bring world-class art and entertainment to Prince George.
He also predicted it would generate nearly $1 million in extra business for the downtown based on 86,000 attendees.
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Last Updated ( Sunday, 28 June 2009 )
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