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B.C. polling data too close to call |
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Written by VAUGHN PALMER
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Tuesday, 18 November 2008 |
VICTORIA -- The press release from one of the biggest polling firms Monday emphasized continuity on the B.C. political scene.
"Still no change in B.C. provincial political standings," read the headline on the latest survey of public opinion from the Ipsos Reid.
The B.C. Liberals were found to have the support of 44 per cent of those polled, "well ahead of the NDP" at 35 per cent.
The release went on to recount the findings and methodology of the survey with the pollster's usual attention to detail.
The only sign of any departure from continuity was a note at the end of the 10-page release, headed: "For the record: recent Ipsos polling and actual election outcomes."
Therein the firm laid claim to being "the most accurate" of 22 pollsters in the recent U.S. election. Also to having come close to forecasting the results in several other contests, including here in B.C. in 2005.
The slightly defensive tone was the only acknowledgment of a significant change in the tiny world of opinion polling here in B.C., namely the entry of a new and provocative player.
Angus Reid Strategies, whose namesake was also the founder of Ipsos Reid, has lately been polling B.C. to dramatic effect.
Angus was out in late summer with the first survey to show the NDP ahead of the B.C. Liberals, after several years in which the Opposition trailed the governing party by as many as 18 points.
Then, on Friday, Angus came out with a new survey that again put the New Democrats in first place, 44 points to 39 for the Liberals.
Polls often differ within their respective margins of error, or because the sample sizes were different or taken at different times.
But in key respects, these two polls were identical. Some 800 British Columbians surveyed between Nov. 5 and Nov. 12. Margin of error plus or minus 3.5 points, the proverbial 19 times out of 20.
True, Angus conducted his poll over the Internet while Ipsos went with the traditional telephone survey. The former conduit hasn't as lengthy and well-documented a track record as the latter. But note that Ipsos has enough regard for the Internet to use it for some surveys as well.
How then to choose between a poll that puts the government comfortably ahead of the Opposition and one that has it behind?
One could simply wait for the next poll. The Mustel Group, the other longtime player on the provincial polling scene, is in the field this week, expecting to release its findings early next week.
Meanwhile, a couple of points of comparison worth noting between the competing surveys.
Ipsos pegged support for the Green party at 16 points, Angus had it down at 11.
If past practice is any guide, the Green vote will drop as the election approaches. It may be that Angus has exposed some of the "softness" of the Green vote, perhaps in a way that frees up more support for the NDP.
Despite the differences in the two sets of findings, there was one key point of agreement -- the emerging issue of leadership on the economy.
Ipsos raised the question this way:
"There has been a lot of discussion recently about the global economy and its potential impact on the B.C. economy. Which of thee two leaders would you trust more to deal with the economy in a time of economic downturn and uncertainty?"
Angus, skipping the preamble, simply sought a ranking on how each of the two leaders "can manage the provincial economy effectively."
Both pollsters found that Premier Gordon Campbell scored much better than Opposition leader Carole James on that issue.
Ipsos had it 56 points for him, 34 points for her, a 22-point lead. Angus recorded 41 points Campbell, 18 James, or 23 points.
So whether they put the Liberals ahead or behind, both pollsters identified the economy as an issue that has the potential to work better for Campbell than for James.
Campbell seized on that possibility in reacting to the first of the two surveys. "The biggest concern is who is going to be able to manage the economy through this difficult time the best," he told my colleague, the Vancouver Sun's Jonathan Fowlie.
"Maybe now people will start paying attention to what the NDP's economic agenda is, which . . . will create all kinds of uncertainty at a time when that's the last thing we can afford."
Mind, he also discounted the Angus findings, saying "I don't think polls this far ahead of an election make much difference."
Words the New Democrats might throw back at the Liberals in reference to the Ipsos numbers.
Pending the arrival of that tie-breaking survey from the Mustel group, there's another exercise that might provide a dose of realism for both parties.
Take the party numbers from the two surveys, add them together and divide by two.
Liberals 42, NDP 40. Now, that sounds more like a B.C. election outcome.
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Last Updated ( Tuesday, 18 November 2008 )
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