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Winter forecast could go either way, says Environment Canada climatologist |
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Written by Tamsyn Burgmann, THE CANADIAN PRESS
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Thursday, 28 August 2008 |
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TORONTO - A well-loved, though oft mistrusted weather tome landed on newsstands this week predicting the coming Canadian winter will be crueller than usual - even catastrophic.
The U.S.-based Farmers' Almanac, the Bible for small-talk champions, says in its 2009 Canadian edition that most of the country will experience numbing -40 degree Celsius weather or worse. It's also calling for heavy snow in the eastern half of the country, with British Columbia the only region expected to be drier than normal.
A senior climatologist with Environment Canada, however, says it's anyone's bet as to what's in store for Canadians this coming winter.
But one thing David Phillips does know is that there's absolutely no science in the bone-chilling Farmers' Almanac forecast.
"Having said that, sometimes (our predictions) are no better," Canada's weather go-to guy said Thursday.
"We never really advise people in our seasonal forecast to bet the family farm on it, because it is a bit of a crapshoot, especially here in Canada."
Still, Phillips said, Environment Canada uses a massive supercomputer to crunch data such as sea surface temperatures, ice and snow conditions and soil information for 10 days before forecasting weather for a coming season.
The 192-year-old Farmers' Almanac, meanwhile, which has published a Canadian edition for some 40 years, makes predictions two years in advance of publication. Its enduring weatherman, who goes by the pseudonym Caleb Weatherbee, uses sunspots, planet positions and tidal activity to calculate forecasts.
Editor Peter Geiger claims the guide is accurate between 80 and 85 per cent of the time.
"People give us credit, and I think, (after) about 192 years we've been doing this, people are relatively confident in our predictions and quite frankly, so am I," he said.
"If somebody doesn't want to believe it, they don't have to."
Environment Canada doesn't release its official winter forecast until Dec. 1, though its second round of rough seasonal predictions will be released next week.
Phillips said one of the best predictors of cold weather is whether El Nino or La Nina has Canada in its grips - and neither phenomenon has yet emerged.
It means the country is presently in neutral territory - a situation Phillips said has been jokingly dubbed "La Nada," which in Spanish means "nothing."
Of the 23 times that neutral conditions have led into Canadian winters since 1950, 10 ended up warmer than average, nine were colder, and four were in between.
"It really is a roll of the dice, because we don't have the one kind of driving force that shapes the winters in Canada," Phillips said.
This past winter was unusual, scoring third on record for heaviest snowfall, while rain dropped by the buckets all summer long.
"We're pretty well weather-weary," Phillips said.
"Because we've come off a tough winter and a disappointing summer, one might feel that nothing can get us down.
"Or maybe it'll be the straw that broke the camel's back. Maybe people will say enough's enough and there will be mass migration to the south."
In the Ontario ski hub of Collingwood, winter business is very much contingent on the weather, but that doesn't mean owners track forecasts months in advance, said Susan Nicholson, general manager of the Collingwood Downtown Business Improvement Area.
"From our perspective, there's absolutely nothing you can do about it," she said, while admitting she does peruse the Farmers' Almanac.
"I look at their predictions and what they're saying is coming up, but I don't put a lot of stock into it. It's a good read."
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 28 August 2008 )
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