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A spate of recent forest sector closure announcements has pushed the job-loss tally from indefinite mill shutdowns and shift reductions in northern B.C. to more than 1,700 in the past year. The figure doesn't include employment losses from temporary shutdowns and the impact on the logging and hauling sector, which would easily push the job impact north of Quesnel over the 2,000-job mark. It's a signal that the province needs to come up with short-term and long-term strategies to help forest-based communities, says the NDP. Both the NDP and forestry unions are calling for a summit to discuss the issue facing the forest sector and come up with a plan on how to move the industry away from relying on producing lumber for the U.S. market. The Liberals, however, say the forest sector's fundamentals are good and it is well positioned to recover once the market turns around. Prince George North Liberal MLA Pat Bell says he believes the market will begin to turn around in 2008, instead of 2009, as most industry analysts have said. "I think the big thing from my perspective is that before people kind of go into complete panic mode, is to remember our industry is very well positioned when the turnaround does come," said Bell. "We are the most competitive sector anywhere in North America as far as lumber recovery factors, as far as efficiency, fibre supply. So, as the market comes back on, we're going to be the first back into marketplace, not the last," he said. NDP forestry critic Bob Simpson believes that anyone that thinks the market is going to turn around in 2008 is grasping at straws. He says the fallout from the market downturn -- stretching into '09 -- will be caught up in the timber supply falldown from the mountain pine beetle epidemic, which means that some of the job losses could be permanent. In the short term, the province, with the help of the federal government, should be looking at items like pension bridging and stabilizing forest contractors, perhaps by shifting them to forest health or fuel management work, said Simpson. More work also needs to be done in involving communities in the potential to use wood waste for bioenergy, he said. (Bell also cited the bioenergy sector as an expansion opportunity). But it's time also to start to try to understand what the forest sector is going to evolve to, particularly finding ways to diversify away from lumber production, said Simpson. That's an issue that could be discussed at a summit. "This is no longer a decade-long time horizon, we need to make adjustments now," said Simpson. Lumber producers are being hammered by a combination of factors: poor lumber prices, a high Canadian dollar which erodes the bottom line, and a 15-per-cent export tax on lumber shipments to the U.S. Prices have tumbled as the U.S. housing sector has collapsed, dropping to a low of 1.2 million starts this year from a peak of more than two million in 2005. Forest analyst Russ Taylor said he expects the lumber output slide to continue in 2008 before it picks up in '09. However, he expects some stabilization in prices in '08 if companies continue to cut back production. Once a turnaround starts, Taylor said he believes Interior producers are in a good position to take advantage of an upturn as they will continue to have access to salvage timber from the beetle epidemic. "That's our advantage," he said. Central Interior Logging Association manager Rick Publicover said there's no doubt the slowdown in the lumber sector is impacting loggers and haulers. Some loggers have lost significant amounts of timber volume this year already, and others are being shifted around which makes them less efficient, noted Publicover. However, the circumstances differ from area to area, and Canfor loggers in the Prince George area are being given more flexibility, viewed as a positive, he said. The very competitive labour market is also creating problems for the logging sector as skilled workers can be attracted to areas where the work is more consistent, he said. --- 2007 Nov. 29 - AbitibiBowater announces indefinite closure of two sawmills and newsprint mill in Mackenzie -- 550 jobs. Nov. 28 - Canfor announces third-shift cutbacks at Rustad Bros., Clear Lake, Polar and Mackenzie -- about 300 jobs. Earlier shift reductions at Houston and Vanderhoof cut about 80 jobs. Nov. 5 --Pope & Talbot sawmill in Fort St. James supposed to restart after three-week shutdown, but doesn't. Caught up in bankruptcy proceedings. About 300 jobs. Oct. 24 - West Fraser announced indefinite idling of Terrace sawmill -- 100 jobs. August --Stuart Lake Lumber goes down in Fort St. James indefinitely -- about 85 jobs. July 27 - Canfor announced reductions at Mackenzie sawmill -- 130 jobs. Feb. 15 - Canfor's OSB mill in Fort Nelson announces cut back -- 20 jobs. 2006 Dec. 8 - Canfor plywood plant in Fort Nelson announces cut back -- 80 jobs. Nov. - McBride Forest Industries goes down permanently -- about 60 jobs. Nov. - Tolko knocks back third shift at Quesnel mill -- 34 jobs.
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